You are making an argument from Analogy: Science and Homeopathy both have experts, we trust scientific experts, therefore we should trust homeopathic experts. It is a false analogy of course, science and homeopathy are crucially different. Science works, demonstrably, homeopathy doesn’t, demonstrably. Trust is earned not given, planes fly, antibiotics works, homoeopathy fails dismally ;D
I was partially joking. What you say is of course perfectly true. But what about, say, the science of psychology? Serial killer profiling? Some theories of modern physics? Freudian psychoanalysis? Economics? Stock market analysis? And, to get back on topic, global warming?
One cannot always simply defer to experts. I’m not too sure what else to do though. On some things, apparently we just don’t know.
I suggest reading Massimo Pigliucci on the differences between so called hard and soft sciences: Strong Inference And The Distinction Between Soft And Hard Science | Science 2.0. It is not that you cannot know anything, it is to understand the limits of your knowledge. Some of the science of global warming is as hard as it comes, you can test CO2 in a lab, it is a greenhouse gas. The long term predictions are softer, climate is complex. What we do know is that we are energising the life sustaining system of the planet, and whatever uncertainties exist should mean more caution not less. That is the reason behind 350.org, we know from geological history that the earth’s climate is stable under 350 ppm of CO2. We are beyond that now, and that is really stupid and dangerous.
I can guarantee you: we are going to burn every lump of coal and every drop of oil, whatever noble-sounding undertakings we make and whatever international treaties we sign. Might as well get used to it.
I am satisfied that anthopogenic global warming is for real (I am, frankly, deferring to the experts!) I’m not convinced I need to have sleepless nights over it though.
In climate talks I often here: ‘we didn’t move beyond the stone age because we ran out of stones’. That is a false analogy in some ways, but I hope that one day our ancestors look back at the way we burn ancient plant and animal matter with the same horror that we look back at our ancestors banging rocks together to make tools. If we burn all the coal and oil we won’t have an atmosphere left, and will probably be closer to Venus than the current earth.
I reckon we’ll never run out of oil or coal, simply because at some point it will become so scarce and expensive that world will have no choice but to move onto other technologies, which would make the reserves that ar left at that point, useless.
That is, if we don’t kill ourselves before then.
I, for one, can’t wait for the oil to run out. Certain arrogant, imperialist warmongering ‘superpowers’ would finally eat some humble pie when they don’t have fuel to power their warplanes… Sure, you can power ICBMs with synthetic fuels, but you base your economy on military power if you don’t have cheap, ubandant fuel, OR the desire to fuck around in middle east politics if you don’t need the oil there…
Last December I visited the Perito Moreno Glacier at El Calafate during a tour of Argentina and Chile. The glacier is about 250 km2 in size. At the front it is quite noisy and one regularly hears sounds like gunshots as the ice cracks. At intervals of about twenty minutes, towers of ice tumble into the lake. The glacier bisects Lago Argentino, causing the water on the one side to rise well above that on the other side. Once in about four years it ruptures, the water carving a spectacular arch through the ice.
This is one of the only glaciers that is growing in size at present.