What are SA’s chances of sliding toward a Coup even before the next general election? Here are my assumptions:
The ANC is losing massive popularity among the youth, radical left and left of centre. A leadership struggle is currently underway and it looks like a lose/lose situation.
The security forces (SAPS, SADF etc) will in the event of insurrection not only be unable to suppress such but be unwilling as well; indeed their loyalties will lie with the left wing. Access to communication networks and arms lie with them.
The unions are swinging left as well and labour will come out against capital and the state. It’ll be a simple matter to choke all major roads via truckers and taxi networks.
Govt has generally been unable to resolve key issues, e.g. land.thus stoking the flames of dissatisfaction and anger.
The EFF is increasingly becoming the leader and advocate for change of the status quo and will not give much attention to calls for stability and calm
The international winds of change (Egyptian summer, Ukraine, ISIS, etc)would seem to support populist uprisings, and the West would in all likelihood be unable to do anything abt a SA coup.
Our democracy is very strong, I doubt Jacob Zuma will finish his term.
I think the ANC also knows it’s time for him to go.
As far as the EFF we will have to weight and see how they do in the next municipal election.
I get the feeling a lot off people voted for them to ruffle anc feather, and feathers they are ruffling,
I don’t know how many people would trust them to run a municipality.
The greatest risk I can see now is the ANC using the state machinery to suppress the EFF,
bringing an end to democracy as we know it. So if it would happen that is where it would start.
An overthrow may not be an altogether bad thing, provided it is staged by the public protector’s office. Madonsela can take over the country anytime as far as I’m concerned. Unfortunately, they are plagued by a series of leaky letters, so keeping the thing a secret may be a bit of a hurdle.
According to Wikipedia, a Coup works by the usurpers infiltrating a small but critical section of the state apparatus. I have a hard time figuring out what, say, the EFF will recon such a strategic point will be. During the sweaty fervour of the Coup, would they opt to beset a Land Rover dealership or a Breitling retailer?
“According to Wikipedia, a Coup works by the usurpers infiltrating a small but critical section of the state apparatus.”
I hate breaking it to you, but we’ve already had a Coup. In Polokwane, when Zuma machined Mbeki’s demise. And comparing Mbeki’s alleged sins that earned him his dismissal to Zuma’s, it wasn’t even a very subtle coup, either.