Actually, correlation doesn’t necessarily imply causation, but with those numbers of samples, it’s a virtual certainty that something is going on that would bear—in fact, require—further scrutiny. The central question is whether TB immunisation (the BCG vaccine) is the correct correlate. It could well be masking the actual factor, or be a proxy for it. The next step would be to create and to investigate a series of subclasses of other potential factors that could be affecting infection and mortality rates (which medical researchers and epidemiologists are almost certainly already doing). This will help narrow down what the correlation is about and what’s causing it.
It’s hard to say exactly what’s going on, given the hugely complex nature of (human) physiology. Still, the correlation is extremely strong, and that’s usually only the case with the most dominant of factors, so it’s quite reasonable to hypothesise a causal relationship and then probe and test this to see if any countermanding evidence can be adduced—i.e., apply the usual scientific approach to winnow out what’s going on. So, it could well be indirectly causal (rather than directly) in that it’s not an upgraded immune response to the virus itself by the body as cultivated by the vaccine, but that the transmission mechanism is altered in some non-obvious way by it, or that the virus’ ability to cause damage is subtly impaired by the presence of a different immune response to a different but associated factor in vaccinated individuals. Perhaps the most baffling aspect at present is that TB is caused by a bacillus, whereas COVID-19 is caused by a virus, and their disease-causing mechanisms are fundamentally different.
The only certain things in all of this are (1) that a better understanding of the virus will emerge from these studies, and (2) it’ll be a while yet before the threat can be eliminated. That means no early release from lockdown (unless you happen to be a self-important government functionary with delusions of invincibility, of course).
I’ve been wondering (though I don’t expect you to know) whether this could be caused by some other vaccine that is “co-morbid” with the BCG one. I would expect governments that vaccinate against BCG may have a whole range of vaccines that they routinely apply that others don’t, or even another entirely unrelated common denominator in the way their medical services are run that make them all end up giving BCG vaccines. Could be that TB is typically a disease of developing nations that routinely experience exposure to a wide gamut of other illnesses that also are not typically encountered in countries where TB less frequently encountered. Could just be that people in those countries have “more practised” immune systems… they’ve been exposed to something that nobody may even know about, that their immune systems have already developed an immune response to, making the “novel” in the virus not so novel … etc. But, I do HOPE that the BCG vaccine is the answer. Albeit finding the mechanism could take ages, all we really need to know is whether it works.
I’ve strangely started finding more and more friends turning to me for “a calm rational perspective” when faced with increasing hysteria and conspiracy theories.
It’s like I’m being used as a mechanism for bouncing fears off-of to help calm themselves. After an exchange with one person I was directly told “thanks, I knew you’d make me feel better” …
Are people really getting this hyped up and panic-stricken? Is this something anyone else is experiencing?
Dare we hope that the flood of nonsense will exercise the population’s skeptical muscles. Maybe not. It certainly brings more people closer to Jesus judging from the almost competitive posting of religious “status updates” on Whatsapp, strangely interspersed with movies of the flock shucking eggs.
I don’t need conspiracy theories. I need but to look at that exponential curve (and the upside down one representing the economy) to get quite hysterical enough, thank you.
Perhaps time to go look up another Munch painting: “The Scream.”
The US traditionally sets a model for other countries during global crises and uses its resources to assist them
Like during the whole New Orleans debacle? Skating the line here… I was personal witness to the US’s unbelievable response to a major natural disaster. I got to walk ground zero myself, They are MUCH better equipped than us to deal with these things, Their large-scale organisation and support was truly mind-blowing to me. BUT they’ve also dropped the ball at times, and some of their territories (for ex. Puerto Rico), have been kinda left to their own devices after HUGE storms like Hurricane Irma, et al. For them to fail at things like this is not surprising and the person who wrote the above line is suffering some selective memory… And I’m not even 1 line into the article yet…
By the end of lockdown, the formal alcohol industry will be history (and along with it thousands of jobs and millions in tax revenue), and replaced with a vast network of underground brewers and distillers.
I don’t think weed has ever had quite the mass-appeal of tobacco. Banning sales of cigarettes is only a move that could’ve been conjured up by someone who has never smoked. Any (ex-)smoker would know that it can only lead to an entire population of really, really angry people.
Disturbing news from Centurion; I quote part of a post from Facebook:
[i]The NPOs (not government funded but funded by the generosity of local businesses and residents) in Centurion have been going in daily to distribute food in our poorer areas and it has gone really well. Then members of a certian red political party moved in and demanded that the NPOs only distribute food to the addresses they give the NPOs.
The NPOs refused as that is not how they operate. Now since earlier this week a crowd waits at the entrance and attacks the NPOs vehicles and steals the food hampers meant for the residents of that township.
There is food - grocery hampers and cooked food, for the hungry but it is not getting to the people because political parties are hijacking the aid.[/i]
